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Our model projects Phoenix Mercury W 89, Los Angeles Sparks W 82, with the Mercury W favored in this WNBA matchup.
The combined 170.4-point projection runs above the WNBA’s 141.4 combined-points average. Mercury W score 82.6 a game and concede 80.6; Sparks W score 85.6 and concede 88.1.
Mercury W sit 3rd in the WNBA standings, Sparks W sit 6th. Tip-off at Mortgage Matchup Center. Stream availability varies by region; the broadcasters listed below show what is licensed where.
Model projection · not financial advice.
Built from WNBA 2025 season data: scoring rate, opponent defence, head-to-head record. 18+, gamble responsibly.
The model line: Mercury W by 7.2, total 170.4.
Mercury W at home: 18–11 SU, 82.6 PPG. Sparks W on the road: 13–10 SU, 85.6 PPG.
Phoenix Mercury W 3 – 1 Los Angeles Sparks W across the last 4 meetings.
| # | Team | W | L | PF | PA | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 27 | 17 | 3643 | 3525 | WLLLL | |
| 6 | 21 | 23 | 3769 | 3882 | LLWWL |
Current season as available on the live data feed.