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WNBA · May 16, 2026 · Mortgage Matchup CenterPhoenix Mercury W vs Chicago Sky W live stream, prediction, odds and h2h

Phoenix Mercury W logo
Home · Elite offence, leaky defence
VS · Sat May 16 · 02:00 UTC
,
Away · Open at the rim
Chicago Sky W logo
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Phoenix Mercury W vs Chicago Sky W prediction

Our model projects Phoenix Mercury W 89, Chicago Sky W 76, with the Mercury W favored in this WNBA matchup.

The combined 164.4-point projection runs above the WNBA’s 141.4 combined-points average. Mercury W score 82.6 a game and concede 80.6; Sky W score 76.0 and concede 85.6.

Mercury W sit 3rd in the WNBA standings, Sky W sit 6th. Tip-off at Mortgage Matchup Center. Stream availability varies by region; the broadcasters listed below show what is licensed where.

Smart angle · prediction & projected score

Model projection · not financial advice.

Model pick
Phoenix Mercury W -12.8
High confidence · 78% win probability
Projected score
88.6 – 75.8
Phoenix Mercury W · Chicago Sky W
Projected total
164.4
Combined points
Win probability
78%
22%
Phoenix Mercury W vs Chicago Sky W

Built from WNBA 2025 season data: scoring rate, opponent defence, head-to-head record. 18+, gamble responsibly.

Heads-up profile

Phoenix Mercury W logo Phoenix Mercury W

Elite offence, leaky defence
Last meetingsWWWW
Record27–17 (3 in group)
PPG for / against82.6 / 80.6
Win % overall56%
Home win %62%
Away win %50%
OFF: Elite DEF: Weak Solid at home Up-tempo

Chicago Sky W logo Chicago Sky W

Open at the rim
Last meetingsLLLL
Record10–34 (6 in group)
PPG for / against76.0 / 85.6
Win % overall24%
Home win %30%
Away win %17%
OFF: Strong DEF: Weak Soft at home Up-tempo

Pre-match angle

The model line: Mercury W by 12.8, total 164.4.

Mercury W at home: 18–11 SU, 82.6 PPG. Sky W on the road: 4–19 SU, 76.0 PPG.

Head-to-head, last meetings

Phoenix Mercury W 4 – 0 Chicago Sky W across the last 4 meetings.

Aug 29, 2025 Phoenix Mercury W 83 vs 79 Chicago Sky W WNBA
Aug 03, 2025 Chicago Sky W 67 vs 83 Phoenix Mercury W WNBA
Jun 21, 2025 Chicago Sky W 86 vs 107 Phoenix Mercury W WNBA
May 28, 2025 Phoenix Mercury W 94 vs 89 Chicago Sky W WNBA

League standings snapshot · WNBA 2025

#TeamWLPFPALast 5
3
Phoenix Mercury W logoPhoenix Mercury W
27 17 3643 3525 WLLLL
6
Chicago Sky W logoChicago Sky W
10 34 3335 3777 WLLLL

Current season as available on the live data feed.

Frequently asked

Where can I watch Phoenix Mercury W vs Chicago Sky W live?
Use the Watch live button above. Bet365 covers most regulated EU/UK/AU/CA markets; Stake covers the rest. Both operators stream live in-play with a funded account.
What time does Phoenix Mercury W vs Chicago Sky W tip-off?
Tip-off is Sat May 16 · 02:00 UTC at Mortgage Matchup Center. Local times are shown in the box above and update to your timezone automatically.
Who is favoured in Phoenix Mercury W vs Chicago Sky W?
Based on the 2025 season data we hold: Phoenix Mercury W are profiled as elite offence, leaky defence (56% win rate) and Chicago Sky W as open at the rim (24%). Form, injuries and venue all factor in, see the heads-up panel.
What's the all-time head-to-head?
From the most recent season we cover, Phoenix Mercury W and Chicago Sky W have met multiple times, see the table above for game-by-game scores.