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Las Vegas Aces W vs Phoenix Mercury W is a WNBA game with a clear lean — the model has Las Vegas Aces W by 4.1, and that's before you factor in venue and rest. The full prediction sits below alongside the head-to-head and the complete pricing across 11 bookmakers.
This shapes up as a high-pace, high-total matchup. The model projects a combined 166.7 points, which is well above the WNBA baseline.
Las Vegas Aces W has the cleaner offensive matchup — their 85.2 PPG outproduces what Phoenix Mercury W typically allow (80.6).
Tip-off is at Michelob Ultra Arena, and Las Vegas Aces W's home record reads as fortress. Phoenix Mercury W's road profile grades out as steady on the road.
There's no prior head-to-head on file in the seasons we cover for Las Vegas Aces W and Phoenix Mercury W — a clean-slate matchup where current form and rest take on extra weight.
In the table, Las Vegas Aces W sit 2nd while Phoenix Mercury W are 3rd — a tightly-bunched standings clash where the result tilts seeding more than the spread suggests.
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Model projection · not financial advice.
Built from WNBA 2025 season data: scoring rate, opponent defence, head-to-head record. 18+, gamble responsibly.
Las Vegas Aces W Phoenix Mercury WThis profiles as a coin-flip on paper — the model splits it within 4.1 points and the projected total of 166.7 is the tell.
Las Vegas Aces W grade out fortress at home; Phoenix Mercury W read steady on the road on the road.
No prior meetings on record from the past seasons covered.
| # | Team | W | L | PF | PA | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Las Vegas Aces W |
30 | 14 | 3680 | 3552 | LWWWW |
| 3 | Phoenix Mercury W |
27 | 17 | 3643 | 3525 | WLLLL |
Current season as available on the live data feed.