Every market on Bet365 and Stake — 3-way, money line, Asian handicap, totals, quarter lines, player props.
Bet365 lets you toggle between decimal, fractional and American odds in account settings. Stake defaults to decimal. Whichever format you read in, the underlying probability is the same.
| Format | Example | Implied probability | Stake → return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Decimal (EU) | 1.91 | 52.4% | £10 → £19.10 |
| Decimal (EU) | 2.50 | 40.0% | £10 → £25.00 |
| Fractional (UK) | 10/11 | 52.4% | £11 → £21.00 |
| American (US) | −110 | 52.4% | $110 → $210 |
| American (US) | +150 | 40.0% | $100 → $250 |
The shortcut. Implied probability from decimal odds is 1 / decimal_odds. From American odds: positive prices = 100 / (price + 100); negative prices = |price| / (|price| + 100). Fractional odds are conversions of the same number with a different denominator.
To find the bookmaker's margin (the "vig"), add up the implied probabilities of all outcomes in a market. A two-way 1.91/1.91 market = 52.4% + 52.4% = 104.8%, so the vig is 4.8%. A typical NBA money-line market has a vig of 3–5%. Lower-vig books (Pinnacle, Stake) operate at 2–3%; higher-vig retail books at 6–8%. Vig is the price of admission — you can't beat it without an edge bigger than the margin.
The standard winner market in the NBA, WNBA, NBL and most non-European leagues. Pick a winner, ignore the margin. No spread, no half-points, no overtime weirdness — overtime counts toward the result.
Common pricing: heavy favourite at 1.20 (83% implied), heavy underdog at 4.50 (22% implied). The vig sits across both sides — 1.91/1.91 is the textbook fair-margin two-way market.
You like a side and the price is short enough that a spread doesn't add value. Or you like a heavy underdog at +400 and don't want to give up the moneyline price for a +6.5 spread that drops the price to +180.
Watch the price movement. The closing line (the price at tip-off) is the sharpest prediction the market produces. If you bet at 1.95 and the line closes at 1.85, you have closing-line value — your bet beat the eventual market consensus. CLV is the single strongest long-term predictor of profitability in any sportsbook market, basketball included.
Common in European basketball where regulation can technically end in a tie before overtime decides. The "draw" is a regulation-only market. In the EuroLeague, EuroCup, ACB and most domestic European leagues, regulation ties are unusual but not impossible — about 2–3% of games. The 3-way market typically prices the draw at 14.00 / +1300 or higher, which is roughly fair.
When to use it. Almost never, unless you specifically want to be paid for a regulation tie in a tightly-priced game. The expected value of a draw bet at fair pricing is similar to the rest of the market. The only edge: late regular-season EuroLeague games where playoff seeds are settled and both sides have nothing to play for — slight uptick in regulation-tie frequency.
The Asian Handicap is the most-traded market in basketball worldwide. The favourite "gives" points and the underdog "gets" points — the bet wins or loses based on the adjusted final score.
The convention varies by book but is usually:
The value of the Asian Handicap is that you get a fair price on a directional view. If you think a team will win comfortably, AH −5.5 at 1.91 pays better than the money line at 1.40.
Money line on Real Madrid: 1.30 (76.9% implied). Asian Handicap −5.5 on Real Madrid: 1.91 (52.4% implied). If your model thinks Real wins by 8+ around 65% of the time, the AH at 1.91 is +20% expected value while the money line at 1.30 is +0% (76.9% true vs 76.9% implied).
Bet on the combined final score (regulation + overtime) being over or under a posted line. Lines come in halves (e.g. 215.5) and quarters (e.g. 215.25 — split bet, half on 215, half on 215.5).
Pace is the single biggest driver. Possessions per 48 minutes drives roughly 60% of the variance in NBA totals. The pace tag on every league page heads-up panel — Up-tempo, Average, Slow — is your fastest read. Two Up-tempo sides on a Friday night will routinely smash season-average totals; two Slow defensive sides on a Wednesday road game will stay under.
Other pace inputs:
Same spread and total markets, but applied to a half or single quarter. Limits are typically 20–30% of the full-game limits, but the prices are softer because casual money concentrates on full-game markets.
Where the edges live. Q1 spreads in the NBA — starters are on the floor, no rotation noise yet, and the line is often a simple fraction of the full-game spread (a −7.5 full-game line might come up as −2 in Q1). If you have a strong early-game read (e.g. team A wins the tip and runs first-quarter sets effectively, team B's bench doesn't enter Q1), Q1 is the cleanest market to express it.
1H totals are similarly softer than full-game totals — and the books tend to over-rate Q4 garbage time when posting full-game totals, so 1H unders can be a real edge late in seasons with rest-management.
Pick a number for an individual player stat: points, assists, rebounds, threes, steals, blocks, or combinations (P+R, P+A, P+R+A). The book posts a line and you bet over or under.
The simplest model:
Projected stat = expected minutes × per-minute production × (usage adjustment ± 5–10% for matchup)
Example: Luka Dončić averages 0.95 points per minute when on the floor with the starting lineup. If he's expected to play 36 minutes (his season average), his projection is 0.95 × 36 = 34.2 points. If the book has him at 31.5 points, the over is the side at fair pricing.
The biggest edges in props come from injury news. When a starter is ruled out 90 minutes before tip, the next man up's prop line should jump 3–5 points but it usually only moves 1–2 because the book is slow to react. We have a separate guide — see Player props.
Combine 2+ legs from the same game on a single ticket. Most books restrict legs to those without obvious correlation, but they all under-price the legs that ARE correlated.
The classic correlated SGP: a team to win by a lot AND its star player to go over points. If the team blows out, the star plays heavy minutes against backups and clears the points line. The two outcomes are statistically linked, but the book often prices them as independent. Expected value can swing positive on tightly-correlated 2-leg SGPs.
Avoid:
The money line (NBA-style 2-way winner market) is the cleanest for beginners. Pick a winner, ignore the margin, no half-points or pushes. Once you're comfortable reading lines, the Asian Handicap is the next step up — it pays better than the money line for the same directional view.
The favourite must win by 6 or more for the bet to win. A 5-point win is a loss. The .5 means there's no push (refund) outcome — every game is decided as a win or loss for the bet.
In 3-way result markets (common in European basketball — EuroLeague, ACB, Lega A) you can bet on a regulation tie before overtime decides. The draw price is typically 14.00 / +1300 or higher, and regulation ties happen in roughly 2–3% of games. In NBA, WNBA and most non-European leagues, the market is 2-way (overtime counts toward the result) so there's no draw to bet on.
The total points market, often shown as Over X.5 / Under X.5 where X.5 is the bookmaker's posted line for combined regulation + overtime score. Pace is the single biggest driver of where the line ends up — Up-tempo teams produce higher totals.
2-leg correlated SGPs (e.g. team blowout + team's star over points) can be +EV when the correlation is real and the book prices the legs as independent. 5+ leg SGPs are nearly always −EV due to compounding vig. Use SGPs sparingly and only on tightly-correlated legs.